NFL -- Week 9 Picks

I'm a little late -- next week I'll work to get my picks up by WED so you have a chance to think deeply about the wisdom of my selections..

Also, these are total gut calls. In coming weeks I'll get a little more data-riffic.

1. Vegas says: MIA@KAN-4
This one just leaped out at me. Only 4 points? Kansas City is on a big-time 4 game roll, coming off that emotional win at Arrowhead last Monday night. Miami on the other hand is 0-7 for a reason. Heck, they lost to the Broncos, which is really really hard to do. (Picture me Tebowing now!). I can't figure out what the geniuses in Vegas are seeing, but I think you'd have to give me 10pts to make me take MIA. Blech!

Shelby line: MIA@KAN-10

2. Vegas says: SEA@DAL-12.5
No respect for my Hawks! I'm expecting more of the Giants-beating Seahawks, not the Cincinnati-bumbling Seahawks we saw last week. Hopefully clipboard-Jesus stays off the field and we get a frisky Tavarius. The Cowboys are looking for a positive inflection-point in a season which has been pretty sucky. I don't think Dallas is going to see Cam and Earl and Chris on the Seahawks D coming -- those guys are starting to gel and if they lose it won't be by many points.

Shelby line: SEA@DAL-5

3. Vegas says: SFO@WAS+3
Yeah, there's no way Washington has a shot here. Grossman is a pick machine and Beck has been studying him closely. I just get the sense that the whole team has given up on Shouty-han, so I don't see any inpsired reversal of Hogville's season. SF is exactly the opposite -- even that lump of grumpus Vernon Davis is running through walls for Coach Harbaugh and they're on a roll. If you'd expect me to take Washington I need at least a touchdown here, even on the road..

Shelby line: SFO@WAS+7

4. Vegas says: GNB@SDG+5.5
I hate Norv Turner so I always bet against him. I'm sure he's a nice guy, but he's a terrible football coach which he has somehow convinced a series of suits that he's somehow capable of impersonating. Last Monday night's Rivers fumble-gate -- sloppy execution -- is all team mentality, i.e. coaching IMO. Apparently in SD manhoods have been challenged and coaches fired. So far they haven't fired the right coach. And Green Bay? Look out '72 Fins. Sure the Bolts are home dogs, but I'll dog them even more.

Shelby line: GNB@SDG+8

5. Vegas says: CHI@PHI+5.5
I pretty much always make a pick on Monday night. Sunday night too, but the Sunday night line (BAL@PIT-3.5) is pretty solid I think. Chicago at Philadelphia is a little more suspect -- I think the Dream Team is starting to find themselves, while the Bears awesome defense is really now just awesome at fighting with each other and the front office. Weak. I can see the Eagles at home running off with this one and to take the Bears I'd have to have at least 10.

Shelby line: CHI@PHI+10

OK, that will do it for this week. I'm too late to get any bites on these lines this week from actual people but this will be my baseline and look for my first scorecard vs. Vegas next Tuesday.